If you’ve ever wondered what it would look like to model a papal election like a Game of Thrones power struggle, minus the bloodshed, this one’s for you.

We’re using Metakinetics, a forecasting framework that maps the forces, factions, and futures of complex systems. In this case, it’s being applied to the 2025 papal conclave: 133 cardinals, locked in the Sistine Chapel, trying to agree on who gets to be the next Vicar of Christ.

So, who’s got the halo edge? Let’s break it down.

The big forces at play

Behind all the incense and solemnity are five major forces shaping the conclave:

  1. Doctrinal gravity: traditional vs. progressive theology
  2. Global pressure: North vs. South Church dynamics
  3. Status quo vs. shake-up: continuity or reform
  4. Media glow: public image and communication skill
  5. Diplomatic vibes: navigating global conflicts and Vatican bureaucracy

Each force affects the viability of different candidate types.

The cardinal blocs

The cardinals aren’t voting as isolated individuals. They tend to fall into informal voting blocs:

  • Italian curialists: bureaucratic insiders favoring Parolin
  • Global South progressives: Tagle supporters looking for new energy
  • Old-school conservatives: backing Sarah and traditional liturgy
  • Bridge builders: swing votes open to compromise candidates like Aveline

Estimated bloc sizes based on historical alignments:

  • Curialists: 35%
  • Global South: 30%
  • Conservatives: 20%
  • Swing voters: 15%

The states of play

We defined potential frontrunner phases using Metakinetics states:

  • S1: Parolin leads
  • S2: Tagle leads
  • S3: Zuppi rises
  • S4: Sarah gains traction
  • S5: Aveline compromise emerges
  • S6: Turkson surprises
  • S7: No consensus yet

Transitions and dynamics

We simulated how the conclave might move from one state to another. For example, a Parolin-led block might lose steam and shift toward a Tagle or Zuppi coalition. If that fails, swing votes may coalesce around compromise figures.

Some likely transitions:

  • Parolin opens strong but hits limits with progressive resistance
  • Tagle benefits from Global South momentum but needs swing votes
  • Zuppi risks getting squeezed unless there’s a deadlock
  • Aveline and Turkson become viable only if others stall

Who’s likely to win?

After running simulations, here’s the final forecast:

  • Pietro Parolin: 35%
  • Luis Antonio Tagle: 25%
  • Matteo Zuppi: 15%
  • Jean-Marc Aveline: 15%
  • Peter Turkson: 5%
  • Robert Sarah: 5%

Unless something unexpected happens, this is Parolin’s conclave to lose. If the Italian vote fractures or the Global South unites, Tagle could pull ahead. And if both get stuck, the path clears for Aveline.

Final thoughts from the balcony

Metakinetics doesn’t predict certainties. It lays out possibilities and paths. In a conclave where every puff of smoke changes the game, it’s a fun and insightful way to track the holy drama.

Now we wait for the white smoke.

#Metakinetics