Overview

This brief compares two approaches to modeling environmental futures:

  1. World3 (1972) – Developed by MIT for The Limits to Growth, it modeled population, resource use, pollution, and food systems in a feedback-loop system.
  2. Wandergrid Agent-Based Model (2025) – Uses dynamic agents and state transitions to simulate the evolution of key environmental indicators from 1850–2075.

Core Similarities

| Dimension                  | World3 (1972)                                      | Wandergrid Model (2025)                        |
|---------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|
| Structure                 | Stock-flow feedback loops                          | Evolving agents & state transitions            |
| Collapse Forecast         | ~2040 under business-as-usual                      | ~2075 under business-as-usual                  |
| Key Indicators            | Population, pollution, food, resources             | CO₂, temperature, biodiversity, forest cover   |
| Intervention Scenarios    | Technology & policy can delay collapse             | Moderate policy enables adaptation             |
| Transformation Conditions | Require global cooperation & systemic reform       | Same—strong agent scores across all domains    |

What Wandergrid Adds

  • Agent evolution: Macro forces like cooperation and innovation evolve stochastically
  • Historical grounding: Full timeline from 1850, allowing past trajectories to shape future outcomes
  • Flexible outcome logic: Collapse, adaptation, and transformation defined by dynamic thresholds
  • Broader adaptability: System structure usable for social, political, or technological scenarios

Conclusion

The Wandergrid model echoes MIT’s Limits to Growth in both method and message. Collapse is not inevitable, but the default path if global trends continue unchecked. Both models affirm that transformation is possible—but only with sustained, systemic shifts across institutions, economies, and culture.